Developing the silver economy has become an important lever to address population aging, cultivate new drivers of economic development, and enhance the well-being of the elderly. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2024, there will be 310.31 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 22.0% of the national population, of which 220.23 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.6% of the national population.

Special arrangements have been made from the central to local levels for the development of the silver economy. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2024, when deploying the work for 2025, identified "actively developing the silver economy" as one of the important measures for the primary task of "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand in all aspects". From the recent local two sessions, it can be seen that "vigorously developing the silver economy and improving the quality of elderly care services" is the focus of local governments' work in 2025. The National Civil Affairs 2025 New Year Work Conference also mentioned the need to focus on actively responding to population aging, implementing the "Silver Age Action" in the new era, actively cultivating the main body of the elderly care service market, and promoting the development of the silver haired economy.

DeepSeek's prediction for China's elderly care sector in 2025: multidimensional changes, challenges, and opportunities

With the intensification of population aging, China's elderly care sector will undergo significant changes in multiple dimensions such as technology, policies, society, and economy by 2025. The following is a comprehensive analysis of the top 20 predictions for China's elderly care sector in 2025 based on the latest industry dynamics and policy trends, combined with market size, technological innovation, policy support, and other dimensions.

The market size of the elderly care industry has exceeded 16 trillion yuan, becoming a new pillar of the economy

It is expected that the market size of China's elderly care industry will reach 16.1 trillion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of over 15%. By 2035, it may exceed 30 trillion yuan, and its proportion to GDP will continue to rise.

The growth momentum comes from accelerated aging (with over 21% of the population aged 60 and above) and consumption upgrading, making the silver haired economy the "most certain" sunrise industry.

Long term care insurance covers 200 million people and builds a new pillar of social security

The pilot cities for long-term care insurance (long-term care insurance) have covered over 2.35 million people, and it is expected to cover a population of 200 million by 2025, with a market size approaching 100 billion yuan.

Policy optimization promotes the layout of "national unity", and pilot cities such as Suzhou and Yangzhou have formed replicable service standards through dynamic supervision and regional innovation.

AI elderly care technology explodes, smart device market reaches 700 billion yuan

The market size of intelligent elderly care devices in China is expected to reach 700 billion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate of over 20%, and a significant increase in global market share.

The application of AI technology includes health monitoring (such as wearable devices), social robots, smart home environment adjustment, etc., to achieve precise health management and emergency response.

The "insurance+health care" model has become an industry growth engine

Taikang, Ping An and other insurance companies have integrated payment, service and investment chains through models such as "New Life Insurance" and "Ping An Butler", with a market size exceeding 500 billion yuan, and may reach trillions of yuan by 2030.

Our services cover high-end elderly care communities, residential elderly care, home health care, etc., forming a full lifecycle service system.

Increased policy support and accelerated standardization of elderly care institutions

The country continues to introduce tax incentives, land policies, and guidance on the integration of medical care and elderly care, promoting the chain and branding development of elderly care institutions.

By 2025, the number of elderly care institutions in China is expected to exceed 8000, the scale of professional nursing staff will exceed 300000, and the service quality supervision system will be further improved.

Home and community elderly care are dominant, and smart nursing homes are popularized

Home care and community care account for over 90% of elderly care, and smart nursing homes provide "virtual nursing home" services through technologies such as the Internet of Things and remote healthcare, alleviating resource shortages.

Beijing, Shanghai and other places are piloting the "family bed" model, which combines intelligent devices to provide home care and health management.

Stratification of elderly consumption demand and rise of segmented tracks

Differentiated by age group demand: 50-59 years old prefer health and wellness tourism, while 70 years old and above rely on life support services, promoting the expansion of the market for aging friendly products (such as bath aids and intelligent monitoring).

The demand for services such as medical and elderly care integration, chronic disease management, and mental comfort has surged, presenting opportunities for specialized institutions.

Industry consolidation accelerates, with leading companies dominating the market

The intensification of competition drives industry consolidation, with leading companies expanding their scale through mergers and acquisitions, and small and medium-sized institutions turning to specialized services such as dementia care and high-end elderly care communities.

Taiping, Taikang and other insurance companies and chain elderly care brands dominate, with service quality and brand reputation becoming the core of competition.

Improve the professional training system for nursing staff

The shortage of nursing staff has forced the upgrading of the vocational training system. It is expected that the number of professional nursing staff will reach 300000 by 2025, with a certification rate of over 80%.

The government collaborates with enterprises to launch the "Nursing Talent Subsidy Program" to enhance the attractiveness of the profession.

Regional innovation pilot promotes balanced development of elderly care nationwide

The experience of pilot cities such as Suzhou and Yangzhou has been promoted nationwide. For example, Shijingshan District in Beijing provides a monthly subsidy of 3000 yuan for severely disabled elderly people to alleviate the burden on families.

The layout of elderly care institutions in rural areas and small and medium-sized cities is accelerating, and policies are tilted to narrow the service gap between urban and rural areas.

Comprehensive penetration of intelligent elderly care technology

In 2025, AI、 Technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data will further popularize in the field of elderly care. Policy support for the pilot of "smart elderly care", coupled with technology companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi accelerating their layout in the aging market, smart wearable devices such as health monitoring bracelets, fall alarms, and home robots will become standard for the elderly, providing more comprehensive protection for their lives and health.

Community home-based elderly care has become the mainstream model

Affected by the miniaturization of family structure and insufficient beds in traditional nursing homes, community canteens, day care centers, and other facilities will rapidly expand. The government is vigorously promoting the coverage of the "15 minute elderly care service circle" in both urban and rural areas. It is expected that more than 90% of elderly people will choose the "home+community" elderly care model, allowing them to enjoy convenient elderly care services in a familiar environment.

Comprehensive implementation of integrated medical and elderly care policies

The reform of medical insurance payment promotes the integration of medical care and elderly care, coupled with the surge in demand for chronic disease management. By 2025, elderly care institutions and medical institutions nationwide will achieve a "two-way green channel", and grassroots communities will also embed "health management stations" to provide more convenient and efficient medical and elderly care services for the elderly.

Popularization of personal pension system

Faced with the pressure of social security funds, policies continue to innovate, and financial institutions have also launched customized pension financial products. By 2025, the number of participants in personal pension accounts is expected to exceed 100 million. Tax incentives and flexible investment choices will attract more middle-aged and young people to plan their retirement in advance, adding a guarantee to their elderly life.

Secondary development of elderly human resources

The implementation of the delayed retirement policy has alleviated the labor shortage problem to a certain extent and also stimulated the willingness of the elderly to re-enter the workforce. In 2025, enterprises will establish more "silver age positions", and the demand for elderly education such as skills training in senior universities will also explode. Older people will continue to contribute to society while enriching their lives.

Large scale promotion of aging friendly renovation

Under the policy subsidy of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development's "Urban Renewal Action", real estate developers actively compete in the aging housing market. By 2025, the completion rate of retrofitting elevators and barrier free facilities in old residential areas is expected to reach 60%. Smart homes such as voice control and automatic lighting will become standard in new homes, creating a more comfortable and safe living environment for the elderly.

The marketization of the elderly care industry is accelerating

The pursuit of quality life by middle and high-income elderly people has led to active financing for health tourism and elderly entertainment. In 2025, private capital will dominate high-end elderly care communities, such as Taikang Home and Vanke Suiyuan. "Residential elderly care" and "cultural elderly care" will become consumption hotspots, and the marketization process of the elderly care industry will be further accelerated.

Integrating mental health services into the elderly care system

The proportion of empty nest elderly exceeds 50%, and mental health issues are increasingly receiving social attention. In 2025, the community will be equipped with elderly psychological counseling rooms as standard, and AI emotional companionship robots will also be put into use to alleviate the loneliness problem of the elderly and safeguard their mental health.

Strengthening the policy of rural elderly care to address shortcomings

The imbalance of urban and rural elderly care resources, as well as the tilt of rural revitalization policies, have prompted the government to increase investment in rural elderly care. In 2025, counties will promote "mutual aid nursing homes" and the government will subsidize rural elderly care infrastructure, such as building regional elderly care service centers, to improve the level of rural elderly care services.

National pilot of long-term care insurance

The disabled elderly population exceeds 40 million, and the high cost of home care forces the improvement of the long-term care insurance system. By 2025, long-term care insurance is expected to cover over 70% of prefecture level cities, and commercial care insurance products will continue to enrich, filling the payment gap and reducing the burden on disabled elderly people and their families.

>>>Summary

In 2025, China's elderly care sector will present a compound growth trend of "policy driven+technology empowerment+demand stratification", with innovative models such as long-term care insurance, AI elderly care, and insurance health care becoming key growth points. The industry needs to further address issues such as shortage of nursing staff and differences in service quality to cope with the challenges of deep aging. For more details, please refer to industry reports and policy documents.